Skating on weak ice

I was supposed to compete in an ice dragon boat festival last winter. Sadly, it was cancelled because of unsafe ice conditions. And according to new research by Culpepper and colleagues (2024) this is going to become more common as we consider quality as well as quantity.

In the face of climate change, it seems obvious that there will be consequences, and already are, for ice coverage. Water bodies are freezing later and thawing earlier. This makes it harder to reach the required ice thickness for different uses including skating, snowmobiling, and ice trucking. But another factor is becoming more relevant as well and that is ice quality.

There are two main types of ice. White ice is opaque, has more air bubbles, and smaller crystals. It is weaker and blocks out more sunlight compared to black ice which is clear, with few air pockets, and larger crystals. Most of our numbers that determine the thickness required for ice to be safe for different uses is based on it being mostly black ice. But climate change with warmer and fluctuating winter weather is changing this.

This has repercussions for safety clearly and could see the end of popular recreation spots. But the consequences are more significant for ice roads which can be a community’s only affordable access to supplies during winter months.

There are also consequences for wildlife as the white ice blocks sunlight from the water underneath affecting the species who typically survive under the ice over the winter.

We are so used to thinking about the quantity as being the only factor in so many areas, but this research emphasizes that we need to think about quality to. And as the quality declines, we need to adjust our expectations.